At the start of 2021, Deshaun Watson was making no secret of the fact that he wanted out of Houston, even though he’d just signed a contract extension with the Texans worth $39m a year. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers was making noises about his uncertainty over whether staying with Green Bay was a wise option (his team’s cruel loss to Tampa Bay in January’s NFC Championship didn’t help).
Things get complicated at this point. Where do disheartened/disgruntled star quarterbacks get traded to if that’s what they really want? Even a seasoned betting veteran would find this a perplexing predicament for making a wager (but the new website Bestodds.com may be of help: for those wanting to understand the issues needed to make an informed, educated sports bet, this is the website for you).
Some of the issues to ponder are the intentions and opportunities of other teams considering trading their quarterbacks. Like the San Francisco 49ers chewing over whether they’re going to retain Jimmy Garoppolo, having just traded up to select Trey Lance in the recent NFL Draft. Similar considerations are on the table for the Pittsburgh Steelers with their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. Then there’s the Denver Broncos who don’t seem totally convinced by Drew Lock, hence the trade to bring in Teddy Bridgewater to provide competition.
Let’s take a closer look at Deshaun Watson’s and Aaron Rodgers’ NFL trade rumors.
Deshaun Watson
The super-talented Watson, possibly one of the best half-dozen quarterbacks in the NFL, has been pretty clear that he’s ready to move out of Houston, not least because the Texans are in a mess. He hasn’t been happy with the ownership and higher management and has hinted that he wants to be traded, without, until March 2021, openly asking for it.
That makes any trade a tough one: to stand a chance, any team interested in him would need to offer, at a minimum, two first round draft picks and a top-level player. The Jets were rumored to be in the most enviable position to do this: after the Jamal Adams trade, they bagged two additional first-round picks. However, they used one of those picks to take Zach Wilson in the draft. The Miami Dolphins might still be on the table, however, if they were willing to include last year’s fifth overall pick Tua Tagovailoa in their offer.
A complication, however, is that 22 women have now filed lawsuits against Watson alleging multiple acts of sexual misconduct, including sexual assault. Back in January, the wise money was on Watson remaining with the Texans despite his disgruntlement. But the allegations have altered that, with numerous pundits (including NFL Network and radio host Rich Eisen) now predicting that Watson’s days at Houston are over.
The Texans have signed Tyrod Taylor and drafted Stanford’s Davis Mills, which may pave the way for a Watson trade. But unless those legal issues are settled soon, that’s almost certainly not going to happen. At the time of writing, if the civil case drags on, the NFL may well place him on the Commissioner’s Exempt List.
Currently, the interest in him from other teams remains strong, with almost every team in the league currently without a top-tier QB of their own expressing interest.
Aaron Rodgers
Even at the seemingly ripe old age of 37, Aaron Rodgers is widely regarded as one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. But he, too, is known to be increasingly unhappy with the Packers, especially after they drafted his likely successor, Jordan Love, as a first-round pick last year.
In May this year, news surfaced that he wanted out of Green Bay and was gazing favorably at the Giants, the Raiders and the Broncos.
Bettors have so far favored the Broncos rumors (BetMGM, for instance, adjusted the Broncos’ odds of getting him from 66/1 to 16/1). But VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi advises caution. He believes the Packers aren’t ready to trade him at this point, even though it’s by no means clear that there’s a way of repairing their relationship with him. Outside of their uncertain QB situation, the Broncos’ roster looks ready to compete in the next few years, which is what Rodgers needs given that he may only have a few years of top-level play in him.
One option that isn’t outside the bounds of probability is that Rodgers might hang up his shoulder guards and retire early.
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